{"id":1573,"date":"2026-03-02T16:53:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T16:53:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/?page_id=1573"},"modified":"2026-03-06T18:34:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:34:54","slug":"1-5c-hedefi","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/1-5c-hedefi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00a01,5\u00b0C C\u00e9l\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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1,5\u00b0C C\u00e9l<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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T\u00e9nyleg t\u00fall\u00e9pt\u00e9k az 1,5\u00b0C-os c\u00e9lt? Mit mond a tudom\u00e1ny?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"3145\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00a0<\/span>A szak\u00e9rt\u0151k \u00e1ltal ismertetett meg\u00e1llap\u00edt\u00e1sok f\u00e9ny\u00e9ben kritikus szakaszban van az a k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, hogy a m\u00e1sf\u00e9l fokos c\u00e9l fel\u00e9 vezet\u0151 jelenlegi \u00fat kimer\u00fclt-e m\u00e1r. A jelenlegi m\u00e9r\u00e9sek azt jelzik, hogy ez a hat\u00e1r hamarosan \u00e1tl\u00e9p\u00e9sre ker\u00fcl. A h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet-emelked\u00e9s a p\u00e1rizsi meg\u00e1llapod\u00e1s k\u00f6z\u00e9ppontj\u00e1ban \u00e1ll, \u00e9s ezt az ENSZ adatai is bizony\u00edtj\u00e1k. Ez a sz\u00e1m nem csak egy c\u00e9l, hanem egy kem\u00e9ny hat\u00e1r az \u00f6kosziszt\u00e9m\u00e1k v\u00e9delme \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben. Az elm\u00falt tizenk\u00e9t h\u00f3napban ez a hat\u00e1r nagyon k\u00f6zel volt, s\u0151t, bizonyos id\u0151szakokban r\u00f6vid id\u0151re el is maradt m\u00f6g\u00f6tte. A val\u00f3s\u00e1g az, hogy a hat\u00e1r m\u00e1r nincs messze.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mi az 1,5\u00b0C-os c\u00e9l\u00e9rt\u00e9k?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00a0<\/span>Ez az 1,5 fok, a P\u00e1rizsi Meg\u00e1llapod\u00e1sban megjel\u00f6lt hat\u00e1r\u00e9rt\u00e9k azt mutatja, hogy a glob\u00e1lis h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet mennyivel nem emelkedhet az iparosod\u00e1s el\u0151tti \u00e9vekhez k\u00e9pest. A tud\u00f3sok ezt fontos hat\u00e1rk\u00e9nt ismerik el, hogy megakad\u00e1lyozz\u00e1k a term\u00e9szeti egyens\u00falyok pusztul\u00e1s\u00e1t. Ha a h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet ezen a hat\u00e1ron t\u00fal emelkedne, az \u00e9let sz\u00e1mos form\u00e1ja komoly vesz\u00e9lybe ker\u00fclne.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mi\u00e9rt 1,5 fok?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Ha el\u00e9rj\u00fck a t\u00f6r\u00e9spontokat, az \u00e9ghajlati rendszer visszaford\u00edthatatlanul k\u00e1rosodik.
az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerint olyan folyamatok indulnak el, amelyek hat\u00e1ssal lehetnek az \u00e9ghajlatra. F\u00e9l fokkal is t\u00f6bb - 1,5 \u00b0C helyett 2 \u00b0C - eset\u00e9n a gleccserek gyorsan olvadnak, \u00e9s a sz\u00e1razs\u00e1g\u00f6vezetek kiterjednek. M\u00e1sf\u00e9l Celsius-fokn\u00e1l a korallz\u00e1tonyok hetven-kilencven sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka k\u00e1rosodna, m\u00edg k\u00e9t Celsius-fokn\u00e1l a k\u00e1r szinte az \u00f6sszesre kiterjedne. Az egyes emberek \u00e1ltal tapasztalt sz\u00e9ls\u0151s\u00e9ges h\u0151s\u00e9g sokkal s\u00falyosabb\u00e1 v\u00e1lik a h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet 2 Celsius-fokos emelked\u00e9s\u00e9vel. Ebben az esetben az \u00e9rintettek sz\u00e1ma majdnem k\u00e9t \u00e9s f\u00e9lszer nagyobb, mint 1,5\u00b0C-os emelked\u00e9s eset\u00e9n. A ny\u00e1ron j\u00e9ggel nem bor\u00edtott Jeges-tenger csak sz\u00e1z\u00e9vente egyszer fordulhat el\u0151, ha a h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet el\u00e9ri az 1,5 Celsius-fokot; k\u00e9t Celsius-fok eset\u00e9n ez t\u00edz\u00e9vente egyszer fordulna el\u0151.
v\u00e1rhat\u00f3.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t

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Tudom\u00e1nyos m\u00e9r\u00e9sek<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A tud\u00f3sok m\u00e1r r\u00e9g\u00f3ta felismert\u00e9k, hogy az \u00e9ghajlat v\u00e1ltozik. A leg\u00fajabb m\u00e9r\u00e9sek azt mutatj\u00e1k, hogy a h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet mennyit emelkedett. Ez a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s nagyr\u00e9szt a gy\u00e1raknak \u00e9s a j\u00e1rm\u0171veknek k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151. Ennek a folyamatnak, amely k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen az elm\u00falt \u00e9vsz\u00e1zadban er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00f6tt fel, k\u00f6zvetlen hat\u00e1sa van. A m\u00e9r\u00e9si eredm\u00e9nyek szerint a k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9g most m\u00e1r el\u00e9g egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171. A h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9kleti \u00e9rt\u00e9kek egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171en elt\u00e9rnek a kor\u00e1bbiakt\u00f3l. Az ember \u00e1ltal termelt g\u00e1zok itt kulcsszerepet j\u00e1tszanak. A megfigyelt v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s nem magyar\u00e1zhat\u00f3 kiz\u00e1r\u00f3lag a term\u00e9szetes ciklusokkal. Az adatok azt is mutatj\u00e1k, hogy a folyamat a kor\u00e1bbi \u00e9vtizedekhez k\u00e9pest felgyorsult.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

A n\u00f6veked\u00e9s m\u00e9rt\u00e9ke k\u00f6r\u00fclbel\u00fcl 1,1-1,2 Celsius-fok, \u00e9s ezt a f\u0151bb jelent\u00e9sek is meger\u0151s\u00edtik. Ezeket az adatokat t\u00f6bbsz\u00f6r is ellen\u0151rizt\u00e9k a forr\u00e1sokban.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1si \u00e1llapot<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Ahol a sz\u00e9n elfogy, ott a h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet emelked\u00e9se nem \u00e1ll meg. A ma a vil\u00e1gon kibocs\u00e1tott sz\u00e9n-dioxid, mintegy negyvenmilli\u00e1rd tonna, \u00e9vr\u0151l \u00e9vre gyors cs\u00f6kken\u00e9st okoz ebben a medenc\u00e9ben. A 1,5 Celsius-fokos hat\u00e1r\u00e9rt\u00e9k betart\u00e1s\u00e1hoz \u00fagy t\u0171nik, hogy ami van, az nem lesz el\u00e9g. A felhaszn\u00e1lhat\u00f3 h\u00e1nyad el\u0151bb-ut\u00f3bb val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg null\u00e1ra fog cs\u00f6kkenni, \u00e9s a szak\u00e9rt\u0151k szerint ez m\u00e1r 2030 el\u0151tt bek\u00f6vetkezhet. Az \u00f3ra ketyeg, \u00e9s a sz\u00e1mol\u00e1s folytat\u00f3dik. N\u00e9h\u00e1ny h\u00f3napban, k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen 2023 \u00e9s 2024 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt a vil\u00e1gszerte m\u00e9rt h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet r\u00f6vid id\u0151re meghaladta a 1,5 Celsius-fokot. Amikor azonban a szak\u00e9rt\u0151k ilyen helyzetr\u0151l besz\u00e9lnek, akkor h\u00fasz \u00e9v \u00e1tlag\u00e1t veszik alapul.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3 adatok<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A j\u00f6v\u0151beli id\u0151j\u00e1r\u00e1si esem\u00e9nyeket elemezve a Meteorol\u00f3giai Vil\u00e1gszervezet \u00e9s az Eur\u00f3pai Uni\u00f3 Kopernikusz \u00c9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1si Szolg\u00e1lata meger\u0151s\u00edtette, hogy 2023 lesz minden id\u0151k legmelegebb \u00e9ve. A k\u00f6zz\u00e9tett inform\u00e1ci\u00f3k a 2024. janu\u00e1ri adatokon alapulnak. Az elm\u00falt tizenk\u00e9t h\u00f3napban a glob\u00e1lis \u00e1tlagh\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet 1,52\u00b0C-kal magasabbra emelkedett, mint az iparosod\u00e1s el\u0151tti id\u0151kben. M\u00e1s sz\u00f3val el\u0151sz\u00f6r fordult el\u0151, hogy r\u00f6vid t\u00e1von t\u00fall\u00e9pt\u00e9k az 1,5\u00b0C-os k\u00fcsz\u00f6b\u00e9rt\u00e9ket. B\u00e1r a h\u00fasz \u00e9v \u00e1tlaga a kulcspont, m\u00e1r 12 h\u00f3nap is figyelemre m\u00e9lt\u00f3 t\u00e1mpontokat ny\u00fajt. A tendenci\u00e1t tekintve a h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet-emelked\u00e9s j\u00f3val a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok el\u0151tt halad. Ek\u00f6zben az IPCC \u00e1ltal rajzolt k\u00e9p szerint, ha a jelenlegi szab\u00e1lyok nem v\u00e1ltoznak, a hat\u00e1r\u00e9rt\u00e9k 2030-ig elmarad.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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A kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1si r\u00e9s \u00e9s a gazdas\u00e1g<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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K\u00fcresel sal\u0131n\u0131mlar azalmak yerine art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimindedir. Halbuki 2030\u2019a dek bu de\u011ferlerin %43 gerilemesi gerekti\u011fi hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. \u015eu anda y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte olan kurallar alt\u0131nda, y\u00fczy\u0131l sonunda d\u00fcnya s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.5\u00b0C ile 2.9\u00b0C y\u00fckselmesi beklenmektedir. Bu durum Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler\u2019in \u00e7evre kolu taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan raporda a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya konmaktad\u0131r. Ekonominin dengesi, 1.5 derece s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n geride kalmas\u0131 halinde ciddi sars\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fayacakt\u0131r. 2024 verilerine dayal\u0131 finansal hesaplamalar, do\u011fal afetlerin k\u00fcresel gelire y\u0131ll\u0131k maliyetinin milyarlarca dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. S\u0131cakl\u0131k iki derece daha t\u0131rman\u0131rsa, GSY\u0130H’\u0131n onda birinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmek s\u00f6z konusudur.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Beavatkoz\u00e1si \u00e9s alkalmazkod\u00e1si folyamatok<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A tud\u00f3sok \u00fagy v\u00e9lik, hogy a 1,5\u00b0C-os hat\u00e1r\u00e9rt\u00e9k technikailag el\u00e9rhet\u0151, de hi\u00e1nyzik a politikai lend\u00fclet. Ahhoz, hogy tartani tudjuk magunkat ehhez az \u00fctemtervhez, a sz\u00e9n-dioxid-elt\u00e1vol\u00edt\u00e1si m\u00f3dszereknek gyorsabban kell fejl\u0151dni\u00fck. Ha az elszeg\u00e9nyedett r\u00e9gi\u00f3kban n\u0151 a kl\u00edmat\u00e1mogat\u00e1s, akkor lehets\u00e9ges lehet a glob\u00e1lis egyens\u00faly fenntart\u00e1sa. Az energiarendszerek jav\u00edt\u00e1sa\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

a v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s a j\u00f6v\u0151 gener\u00e1ci\u00f3i sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra sz\u00fcks\u00e9gszer\u0171v\u00e9 v\u00e1lt. Az ipari szab\u00e1lyoz\u00e1s nemcsak a term\u00e9szetet v\u00e9di, hanem a gazdas\u00e1g ellen\u00e1ll\u00f3 k\u00e9pess\u00e9g\u00e9t is meghat\u00e1rozza.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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K\u00f6vetkeztet\u00e9s<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Egyesek \u00fagy gondolj\u00e1k, hogy a 1,5\u00b0C-os hat\u00e1r\u00e9rt\u00e9ket m\u00e1r \u00e1tl\u00e9pt\u00fck, de tudom\u00e1nyosan m\u00e9g nem \u00e9rt\u00fck el ezt a pontot. Minden egyes h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet-emelked\u00e9s s\u00falyosb\u00edtja a katasztr\u00f3f\u00e1kat, gyeng\u00edti a term\u00e9szetet \u00e9s megzavarja a gazdas\u00e1gi folyamatokat. A mai d\u00f6nt\u00e9shozatali strukt\u00far\u00e1k alapvet\u0151 felel\u0151ss\u00e9ge, hogy a korm\u00e1nyok a tudom\u00e1nynak megfelel\u0151en fognak-e cselekedni, \u00e9s hagynak-e lakhat\u00f3 vil\u00e1got a j\u00f6v\u0151 gener\u00e1ci\u00f3inak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1.5\u00b0C Hedefi 1.5\u00b0C Hedefi Fiilen A\u015f\u0131ld\u0131 m\u0131? Bilim Ne Diyor? \u00a0Bir bu\u00e7uk derece hedefine y\u00f6nelik mevcut yolun t\u00fckenip t\u00fckenmedi\u011fi konusu, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"no-sidebar","site-content-layout":"page-builder","ast-site-content-layout":"full-width-container","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"disabled","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"enabled","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1573","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1573","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1573"}],"version-history":[{"count":31,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1573\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1730,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1573\/revisions\/1730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1573"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}