{"id":1731,"date":"2026-03-06T18:40:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:40:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/?page_id=1731"},"modified":"2026-03-06T18:43:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:43:51","slug":"iklim-gocu-2050de-sinirlar-nasil-degisecek","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/iklim-gocu-2050de-sinirlar-nasil-degisecek\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00a0\u00c9ghajlati migr\u00e1ci\u00f3: Hogyan v\u00e1ltoznak a hat\u00e1rok 2050-ben?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00c9ghajlati migr\u00e1ci\u00f3: Hogyan v\u00e1ltoznak a hat\u00e1rok 2050-ben?<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00a0<\/span>Az IPCC 2023-ban k\u00f6zz\u00e9tett jelent\u00e9se \u00e9s a COP21 meg\u00e1llap\u00edt\u00e1saib\u00f3l kider\u00fclt, hogy a 2018-ban meghat\u00e1rozott 1,5 fokos k\u00fcsz\u00f6b\u00e9rt\u00e9ket a 2030-as \u00e9vek elej\u00e9n val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg t\u00fall\u00e9pj\u00fck, ha a jelenlegi kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1si trendek folytat\u00f3dnak. Ha nem siker\u00fcl megakad\u00e1lyozni a jelenlegi helyzet roml\u00e1s\u00e1t, akkor olyan vesz\u00e9lyeket j\u00f3solnak, mint a sarki j\u00e9gsapk\u00e1k olvad\u00e1sa, a v\u00edzszint emelked\u00e9se \u00e9s sz\u00e1mos v\u00e1ros el\u00e1raszt\u00e1sa. Emiatt az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerint emberek milli\u00f3it fenyegeti majd a hajl\u00e9ktalann\u00e1 v\u00e1l\u00e1s vesz\u00e9lye. Ennek a helyzetnek a t\u00fckr\u00f6z\u0151d\u00e9s\u00e9t l\u00e1tjuk a jogi vil\u00e1gban az \u00e9ghajlati menek\u00fclt \u00e9s az \u00e9ghajlati \u00fatlev\u00e9l fogalm\u00e1nak megvitat\u00e1s\u00e1val, valamint - elker\u00fclhetetlen k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyk\u00e9nt - azzal, hogy mik\u00e9nt v\u00e1ltoznak meg az \u00e9ghajlati hat\u00e1rok. K\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen a F\u00f6ldk\u00f6zi-tenger medenc\u00e9je, amelyet \u2019forr\u00f3 pontnak\u2019 neveznek, gazdas\u00e1gi \u00e9s politikai jelent\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9t tekintve a legnagyobb vesz\u00e9lyt jelent\u0151 r\u00e9gi\u00f3k k\u00f6z\u00e9 tartozik.\u00a0
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\u00a0<\/span>A Vil\u00e1gbank szerint 2050-ig az \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s okozta elmozdul\u00e1s ak\u00e1r 143 milli\u00f3 embert is \u00e9rinthet a glob\u00e1lis d\u00e9len, \u00e9s a F\u00f6ldk\u00f6zi-tenger strat\u00e9giai tranzitfolyos\u00f3k\u00e9nt szolg\u00e1lhat az \u00e9szak fel\u00e9 ir\u00e1nyul\u00f3 migr\u00e1ci\u00f3s \u00e1raml\u00e1sok sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra. A K\u00f6zel-Keleten a n\u00f6vekv\u0151 v\u00edzhi\u00e1ny m\u00e1r most is a bels\u0151 migr\u00e1ci\u00f3t t\u00e1pl\u00e1lja.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Az \u00c9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1si Korm\u00e1nyk\u00f6zi Test\u00fclet hatodik \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u0151 jelent\u00e9se szerint a F\u00f6ldk\u00f6zi-tenger medenc\u00e9j\u00e9ben m\u00e9g k\u00f6zepes kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1si forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvek eset\u00e9n is fenn\u00e1ll a ny\u00e1ri asz\u00e1lyok s\u00falyosbod\u00e1s\u00e1nak, a talajnedvess\u00e9g cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9nek \u00e9s a v\u00edzk\u00e9szletekre nehezed\u0151 nyom\u00e1s n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9nek kock\u00e1zata. A K\u00f6zel-Kelet \u00e9s \u00c9szak-Afrika (MENA) t\u00e9rs\u00e9g\u00e9ben az egy f\u0151re jut\u00f3 v\u00edzmennyis\u00e9g m\u00e1r most is alacsony, \u00e9s az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerint ez a mennyis\u00e9g az \u00e9ghajlatv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1ssal tov\u00e1bb fog cs\u00f6kkenni.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t

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\u00a0<\/span>A Vil\u00e1gbank \u00e1ltal k\u00f6zz\u00e9tett Groundswell-jelent\u00e9s modellezi ezen \u00f6kol\u00f3giai el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek demogr\u00e1fiai k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyeit. A jelent\u00e9s szerint 2050-re a MENA-r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban az \u00e9ghajlati hat\u00e1sok miatt emberek milli\u00f3i k\u00e9nyszer\u00fclhetnek az orsz\u00e1gon bel\u00fcli k\u00f6lt\u00f6z\u00e9sre. A migr\u00e1ci\u00f3 t\u00f6bbnyire a vid\u00e9ki ter\u00fcletekr\u0151l a v\u00e1rosi k\u00f6zpontokba ir\u00e1nyul. Ebben az esetben az \u2019\u00e9ghajlati menek\u00fcltek\u201d jelens\u00e9ge ker\u00fcl napirendre.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

A megl\u00e9v\u0151 nemzetk\u00f6zi jogi keret korl\u00e1tozott v\u00e9delmet ny\u00fajt a mobilit\u00e1s ezen \u00faj form\u00e1i sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra. Az 1951. \u00e9vi menek\u00fclt\u00fcgyi egyezm\u00e9ny nem ismeri el kifejezetten az \u00e9ghajlat okozta lak\u00f3helyv\u00e1ltoztat\u00e1st, \u00edgy az \u00fagynevezett \u201c\u00e9ghajlati menek\u00fcltek\u201d normat\u00edv v\u00e1kuumban maradnak. B\u00e1r az olyan hat\u00e1rozatok, mint p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul a Teitiota kontra \u00daj-Z\u00e9land, elismert\u00e9k, hogy a sz\u00e9ls\u0151s\u00e9ges k\u00f6rnyezetk\u00e1rosod\u00e1s bizonyos k\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00e9nyek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt a visszak\u00fcld\u00e9s tilalm\u00e1ra vonatkoz\u00f3 k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9geket vonhat maga ut\u00e1n, az \u00e9ghajlat miatt lak\u00f3hely\u00fcket elhagyni k\u00e9nyszer\u00fclt szem\u00e9lyek sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra nem hoztak l\u00e9tre k\u00fcl\u00f6n jogi st\u00e1tuszt. B\u00e1r a menek\u00fclt fogalm\u00e1nak kib\u0151v\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9re vagy az \u201c\u00e9ghajlati menek\u00fcltek\u201d k\u00fcl\u00f6n kateg\u00f3ri\u00e1j\u00e1nak l\u00e9trehoz\u00e1s\u00e1ra ir\u00e1nyul\u00f3 javaslatok ezt a hi\u00e1nyt igyekeznek p\u00f3tolni, k\u00f6telez\u0151 \u00e9rv\u00e9ny\u0171 glob\u00e1lis szab\u00e1lyoz\u00e1s m\u00e9g nem sz\u00fcletett. Ez\u00e9rt a\u00a0<\/span>A megl\u00e9v\u0151 emberi jogi rendszerek nem v\u00e9dik az \u00e9ghajlati menek\u00fcltek jogait, akik jelenleg \u00e9s az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerint a j\u00f6v\u0151ben m\u00e9g nagyobb probl\u00e9m\u00e1t jelentenek majd.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ebben az \u00f6sszef\u00fcgg\u00e9sben innovat\u00edvabb \u00e9s el\u0151remutat\u00f3bb megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9s az \u201c\u00e9ghajlati \u00fatlev\u00e9l\u201d \u00f6tlete. Ez a koncepci\u00f3 egy olyan jogi dokumentumra utal, amely az \u00e9ghajlati hat\u00e1sok miatt lakhatatlann\u00e1 v\u00e1lt r\u00e9gi\u00f3kb\u00f3l sz\u00e1rmaz\u00f3 szem\u00e9lyek sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra jogot biztos\u00edtana a hat\u00e1rokon \u00e1tny\u00fal\u00f3 mobilit\u00e1sra \u00e9s potenci\u00e1lisan a munkaer\u0151piachoz val\u00f3 hozz\u00e1f\u00e9r\u00e9sre. Ahelyett, hogy a hat\u00e1rokat \u00fajrarajzoln\u00e1k a t\u00e9rk\u00e9pen, az ilyen meg\u00e1llapod\u00e1sok c\u00e9lja annak \u00fajradefini\u00e1l\u00e1sa, hogy a hat\u00e1rok hogyan reag\u00e1lnak az \u00e9ghajlat okozta kitelep\u00edt\u00e9sekre, ami a jelenlegi forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvek alapj\u00e1n a jogi \u00e9s politikai megold\u00e1sok k\u00f6z\u00fcl a legjobb megold\u00e1snak tekinthet\u0151.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6sszefoglalva, 2050-re a hat\u00e1rok fizikailag tal\u00e1n nem v\u00e1ltoznak meg a t\u00e9rk\u00e9pen, de politikai \u00e9s jogi jelent\u00e9s\u00fck \u00e1talakulhat. A tengerszint emelked\u00e9se egyes partvonalak visszah\u00faz\u00f3d\u00e1s\u00e1hoz \u00e9s az alacsonyan fekv\u0151 ter\u00fcletek zsugorod\u00e1s\u00e1hoz vezethet, azonban a F\u00f6ldk\u00f6zi-tenger \u00e9s a MENA r\u00e9gi\u00f3 f\u00f6ldrajzi hat\u00e1rainak nagym\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 eltol\u00f3d\u00e1sa 2050-ig val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171tlennek t\u0171nik. A nemzetk\u00f6zi jog szerint az \u00e1llamok hajlamosak arra, hogy tengeri joghat\u00f3s\u00e1gi ter\u00fcleteiket v\u00e1ltozatlanul tarts\u00e1k, m\u00e9g akkor is, ha a partvonal v\u00e1ltozik. Emiatt az \u00e9ghajlati v\u00e1ls\u00e1g hat\u00e1s\u00e1t a hat\u00e1rokra nagyr\u00e9szt nem a t\u00e9rk\u00e9pen, hanem a hat\u00e1rok m\u0171k\u00f6dtet\u00e9s\u00e9nek m\u00f3dj\u00e1n fogjuk l\u00e1tni. Az \u00e9ghajlat okozta n\u00f6vekv\u0151 mobilit\u00e1ssal szemben az \u00e1llamok k\u00e9t \u00fat k\u00f6z\u00fcl az egyiket v\u00e1laszthatj\u00e1k: Vagy biztons\u00e1gi fenyeget\u00e9sk\u00e9nt tekintenek a migr\u00e1ci\u00f3ra, \u00e9s szigor\u00edtj\u00e1k a hat\u00e1rellen\u0151rz\u00e9st, vagy \u00faj v\u00e9delmi st\u00e1tuszok \u00e9s region\u00e1lis egy\u00fcttm\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9si mechanizmusok kialak\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1val igaz\u00edtj\u00e1k ki a hat\u00e1rrendszereket. A jelenlegi tendenci\u00e1k r\u00f6vid t\u00e1von a szigor\u00fabb hat\u00e1rellen\u0151rz\u00e9sre utalnak. M\u00e9gis, tekintettel arra, hogy mit hoz az id\u0151, az \u00e1llamoknak fel kellene hagyniuk a hagyom\u00e1nyos megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9ssel, \u00e9s olyan \u00faj jogi megk\u00f6zel\u00edt\u00e9seket kellene elfogadniuk, mint p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul az \u00e9ghajlati \u00fatlev\u00e9l, amelyek innovat\u00edvak \u00e9s reag\u00e1lnak a kor probl\u00e9m\u00e1ira \u00e9s ig\u00e9nyeire.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130klim G\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc: 2050\u2019de S\u0131n\u0131rlar Nas\u0131l De\u011fi\u015fecek? \u00a02023\u2019te yay\u0131nlanan IPCC raporu ve COP21 bulgular\u0131; 2018\u2019de belirlenen 1,5 derece e\u015fi\u011finin mevcut emisyon […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"no-sidebar","site-content-layout":"page-builder","ast-site-content-layout":"full-width-container","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"disabled","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1731","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1731"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1731\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1736,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1731\/revisions\/1736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}