{"id":1573,"date":"2026-03-02T16:53:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T16:53:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/?page_id=1573"},"modified":"2026-03-06T18:34:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:34:54","slug":"1-5c-hedefi","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/is\/1-5c-hedefi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00a01,5 \u00b0C markmi\u00f0i\u00f0\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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1,5 \u00b0C markmi\u00f0i\u00f0<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Er 1,5 \u00b0C markmi\u00f0i\u00f0 \u00feegar fari\u00f0 fram \u00far? Hva\u00f0 segir v\u00edsindin?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"3145\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00a0<\/span>Spurningin um hvort n\u00faverandi braut a\u00f0 1,5 \u00b0C markinu s\u00e9 \u00f3hagganleg hefur n\u00e1\u00f0 vi\u00f0kv\u00e6mu stigi \u00ed lj\u00f3si ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0na sem s\u00e9rfr\u00e6\u00f0ingar hafa kynnt. N\u00faverandi m\u00e6lingar benda til \u00feess a\u00f0 \u00feessi \u00fer\u00f6skuldur s\u00e9 a\u00f0 ver\u00f0a yfirstigin. Hitatignun er \u00ed hjarta Par\u00edsarsamkomulagsins, og g\u00f6gn Sameinu\u00f0u \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0anna sta\u00f0festa \u00feessa st\u00f6\u00f0u. \u00deessi tala er ekki einungis markmi\u00f0, heldur erfi\u00f0 vi\u00f0mi\u00f0unarm\u00f6rk sem \u00fearf a\u00f0 vir\u00f0a til a\u00f0 vernda vistkerfi. \u00c1 s\u00ed\u00f0ustu t\u00f3lf m\u00e1nu\u00f0um h\u00f6fum vi\u00f0 komi\u00f0 mj\u00f6g n\u00e1l\u00e6gt \u00feessari l\u00ednu og \u00e1 k\u00f6flum jafnvel stuttlega fari\u00f0 yfir hana. Raunin er s\u00fa a\u00f0 m\u00f6rkin eru ekki lengur langt undan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Hva\u00f0 er 1,5 \u00b0C markmi\u00f0i\u00f0?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00a0<\/span>\u00deessi 1,5 \u00b0C m\u00f6rk, eins og kve\u00f0i\u00f0 er \u00e1 um \u00ed Par\u00edsarsamkomulaginu, gefa til kynna h\u00e1marks h\u00e6kkun hnattr\u00e6nnar hitastigs mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 fyrir-i\u00f0nv\u00e6\u00f0ingarstig. V\u00edsindamenn l\u00fdsa \u00feessu sem vi\u00f0kv\u00e6mu \u00fer\u00f6skuldi til a\u00f0 koma \u00ed veg fyrir truflun \u00e1 n\u00e1tt\u00farulegum jafnv\u00e6gi. Ef hitastigi\u00f0 fer yfir \u00feessi m\u00f6rk munu margar l\u00edfverutegundir vera \u00ed alvarlegri h\u00e6ttu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Af hverju 1,5 gr\u00e1\u00f0ur?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00deegar hnattr\u00e6nar \u00fer\u00f6skuldar ver\u00f0a n\u00e1\u00f0, mun loftslagskerfi\u00f0 ver\u00f0a \u00f3afturkr\u00e6ft.
Sp\u00e1\u00f0 er a\u00f0 ferlar sem geta valdi\u00f0 sl\u00edkum \u00e1hrifum muni hefjast. Jafnvel h\u00e6kkun upp \u00e1 a\u00f0eins h\u00e1lfa gr\u00e1\u00f0u \u2013 \u00far 1,5 \u00b0C \u00ed 2 \u00b0C \u2013 getur leitt til hr\u00f6\u00f0rar j\u00f6kulbr\u00e1\u00f0nunar og \u00fat\u00feenslu \u00feurrra sv\u00e6\u00f0a. \u00de\u00f3 a\u00f0 hitah\u00e6kkun upp \u00e1 1,5 \u00b0C skemmi 70\u201390% k\u00f3rallrifja, n\u00e6r \u00feessi skemmd til n\u00e1nast allra \u00feeirra \u00feegar hitastigi\u00f0 n\u00e6r 2 \u00b0C. Of mikill hiti sem sumir finna ver\u00f0ur mun alvarlegri vi\u00f0 2 \u00b0C h\u00e6kkun hitastigs. \u00cd \u00feessu tilviki eykst fj\u00f6ldi \u00feeirra sem ver\u00f0a fyrir \u00e1hrifum n\u00e6stum tvisvar og h\u00e1lft sinnum mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 1,5 \u00b0C h\u00e6kkun. Sumari\u00f0 g\u00e6ti Nor\u00f0ursj\u00f3inn or\u00f0i\u00f0 \u00edslaus einu sinni \u00e1 hundra\u00f0 \u00e1ra fresti ef hitastigi\u00f0 h\u00e6kkar um 1,5 \u00b0C; ef \u00fea\u00f0 h\u00e6kkar um 2 \u00b0C myndi \u00feetta gerast \u00e1 t\u00edu \u00e1ra fresti.
er b\u00faist vi\u00f0.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t

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V\u00edsindalegar m\u00e6lingar<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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V\u00edsindamenn hafa lengi vita\u00f0 a\u00f0 loftslagi\u00f0 er a\u00f0 breytast. N\u00fdjustu m\u00e6lingar s\u00fdna hversu miki\u00f0 hitastigi\u00f0 hefur h\u00e6kka\u00f0. \u00deessi h\u00e6kkun er a\u00f0 mestu leyti vegna verksmi\u00f0ja og \u00f6kut\u00e6kja. \u00deessi ferill, sem hefur aukist s\u00e9rstaklega \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0ustu \u00f6ld, hefur haft bein \u00e1hrif. Samkv\u00e6mt m\u00e6linga\u00farslitunum er munurinn n\u00fa nokku\u00f0 \u00e1berandi. Hitastigslesningar eru greinilega fr\u00e1brug\u00f0nar fyrri m\u00e6lingum. Mannger\u00f0ar lofttegundir gegna lykilhlutverki \u00ed \u00feessu. S\u00e1 breyting sem hefur or\u00f0i\u00f0 er ekki h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 \u00fatsk\u00fdra eing\u00f6ngu me\u00f0 n\u00e1tt\u00farulegum hringr\u00e1sum. G\u00f6gnin s\u00fdna einnig a\u00f0 ferli\u00f0 hefur hra\u00f0ast samanbori\u00f0 vi\u00f0 undanfarna \u00e1ratugi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

H\u00e6kkunin er um \u00fea\u00f0 bil \u00e1 bilinu 1,1 til 1,2 gr\u00e1\u00f0ur, og helstu sk\u00fdrslurnar sta\u00f0festa \u00feetta. \u00deessar t\u00f6lur hafa veri\u00f0 endurteknar athuga\u00f0ar \u00ed heimildunum.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Losunarsta\u00f0a<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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H\u00e6kkun hitastigs s\u00fdnir engin merki um a\u00f0 st\u00f6\u00f0vast \u00fear sem kolefnissj\u00f3\u00f0ir kl\u00e1rast. Koltv\u00eds\u00fdringurinn sem n\u00fa er losa\u00f0ur \u00fat \u00ed andr\u00famslofti\u00f0 veldur hra\u00f0ri t\u00e6mingu \u00e1 \u00feessum sj\u00f3\u00f0i, sem nemur um fj\u00f6rut\u00edu millj\u00f6r\u00f0um tonna \u00e1 \u00e1ri. \u00dea\u00f0 er a\u00f0 ver\u00f0a lj\u00f3st a\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e6r a\u00f0ger\u00f0ir sem vi\u00f0 h\u00f6fum til taks muni ekki duga til a\u00f0 halda h\u00e6kkun hitastigs undir 1,5 gr\u00e1\u00f0u \u00fer\u00f6skuldinum. Eftirstandandi kolefnisfj\u00e1rhags\u00e1\u00e6tlun mun l\u00edklega n\u00e1 n\u00falli fyrr e\u00f0a s\u00ed\u00f0ar, og s\u00e9rfr\u00e6\u00f0ingar benda \u00e1 a\u00f0 \u00feetta g\u00e6ti gerst fyrir \u00e1ri\u00f0 2030. \u00deegar t\u00edminn l\u00ed\u00f0ur \u00e1fram heldur talningin \u00e1fram. \u00c1 nokkrum m\u00e1nu\u00f0um, einkum \u00e1 \u00e1runum 2023 og 2024, hefur hnattr\u00e6na hitastigi\u00f0 stuttlega fari\u00f0 yfir 1,5 stig. \u00deegar s\u00e9rfr\u00e6\u00f0ingar v\u00edsa til sl\u00edks \u00e1stands byggja \u00feeir hins vegar mat sitt \u00e1 me\u00f0altali yfir tuttugu \u00e1ra t\u00edmabil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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N\u00faverandi g\u00f6gn<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Vi\u00f0 greiningu \u00e1 ve\u00f0urfari framt\u00ed\u00f0ar hafa Heimsve\u00f0urfr\u00e6\u00f0asamt\u00f6kin og loftslags\u00fej\u00f3nusta Evr\u00f3pusambandsins, Copernicus, sta\u00f0fest a\u00f0 \u00e1ri\u00f0 2023 hafi veri\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 heitasta sem skr\u00e1\u00f0 hefur veri\u00f0 til \u00feessa. G\u00f6gnin sem birt hafa veri\u00f0 byggja \u00e1 t\u00f6lum fr\u00e1 jan\u00faar 2024. \u00c1 s\u00ed\u00f0ustu t\u00f3lf m\u00e1nu\u00f0um hafa me\u00f0alhitastig \u00e1 j\u00f6r\u00f0inni veri\u00f0 1,52 \u00b0C h\u00e6rri en \u00e1 forskei\u00f0i i\u00f0nbyltingar. \u00deetta er \u00ed fyrsta sinn sem 1,5 \u00b0C \u00fer\u00f6skuldurinn er farinn yfir til skamms t\u00edma. \u00de\u00f3 a\u00f0 tuttugu \u00e1ra me\u00f0altal s\u00e9 \u00e1fram helsta vi\u00f0mi\u00f0i\u00f0, gefa jafnvel t\u00f3lf m\u00e1na\u00f0a t\u00edmabilin til kynna \u00e1berandi merki. Mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 n\u00faverandi \u00fer\u00f3un er h\u00e6kkun hitastigs a\u00f0 \u00fer\u00f3ast mun hra\u00f0ar en b\u00faist var vi\u00f0. \u00c1 sama t\u00edma, samkv\u00e6mt sp\u00e1m IPCC, mun \u00fer\u00f6skuldurinn ver\u00f0a yfirstigin \u00e1ri\u00f0 2030 ef n\u00faverandi stefna ver\u00f0ur \u00f3breytt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Losunarbil og efnahagsl\u00edfi\u00f0<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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K\u00fcresel sal\u0131n\u0131mlar azalmak yerine art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimindedir. Halbuki 2030\u2019a dek bu de\u011ferlerin %43 gerilemesi gerekti\u011fi hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. \u015eu anda y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte olan kurallar alt\u0131nda, y\u00fczy\u0131l sonunda d\u00fcnya s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.5\u00b0C ile 2.9\u00b0C y\u00fckselmesi beklenmektedir. Bu durum Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler\u2019in \u00e7evre kolu taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan raporda a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya konmaktad\u0131r. Ekonominin dengesi, 1.5 derece s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n geride kalmas\u0131 halinde ciddi sars\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fayacakt\u0131r. 2024 verilerine dayal\u0131 finansal hesaplamalar, do\u011fal afetlerin k\u00fcresel gelire y\u0131ll\u0131k maliyetinin milyarlarca dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. S\u0131cakl\u0131k iki derece daha t\u0131rman\u0131rsa, GSY\u0130H’\u0131n onda birinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmek s\u00f6z konusudur.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\u00cdhlutunar- og a\u00f0l\u00f6gunarferli<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00de\u00f3 v\u00edsindamenn telji a\u00f0 1,5 \u00b0C m\u00f6rkin kunni a\u00f0 vera t\u00e6knilega framkv\u00e6manleg, er n\u00faverandi p\u00f3lit\u00edsk a\u00f0ger\u00f0a\u00e1stand \u00f3fulln\u00e6gjandi. Til a\u00f0 halda sig \u00e1 r\u00e9ttri braut samkv\u00e6mt \u00feessari \u00e1\u00e6tlun \u00fearf a\u00f0 hra\u00f0a fram\u00fer\u00f3un t\u00e6kni til kolefnisbindingar. Ef loftslagsstu\u00f0ningur vi\u00f0 f\u00e1t\u00e6k sv\u00e6\u00f0i er aukinn g\u00e6ti veri\u00f0 h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 vi\u00f0halda al\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0legri st\u00f6\u00f0ugleika. Orkukerfi\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

A\u00f0 gera breytingar hefur or\u00f0i\u00f0 nau\u00f0synlegt fyrir komandi kynsl\u00f3\u00f0ir. Regluger\u00f0arr\u00e1\u00f0stafanir \u00ed i\u00f0na\u00f0i vernda ekki a\u00f0eins umhverfi\u00f0 heldur \u00e1kvar\u00f0a einnig seiglu efnahagsl\u00edfsins.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Ni\u00f0ursta\u00f0a<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00de\u00f3 sumir telji a\u00f0 1,5 \u00b0C \u00fer\u00f6skuldinum hafi \u00feegar veri\u00f0 fari\u00f0 yfir, \u00fe\u00e1 h\u00f6fum vi\u00f0 v\u00edsindalega s\u00e9\u00f0 ekki enn\u00fe\u00e1 n\u00e1\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed marki a\u00f0 fullu. Hver hitastigs h\u00e6kkun eykur h\u00f6rmungar, veikjar n\u00e1tt\u00faruna og raskar efnahagsferlum. Spurningin um hvort stj\u00f3rnv\u00f6ld muni breg\u00f0ast vi\u00f0 \u00ed samr\u00e6mi vi\u00f0 v\u00edsindin til a\u00f0 skilja eftir s\u00e9r b\u00fasetuh\u00e6fan heim fyrir komandi kynsl\u00f3\u00f0ir er grundvallarskylda \u00e1kvar\u00f0anat\u00f6kua\u00f0ila n\u00fat\u00edmans.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1.5\u00b0C Hedefi 1.5\u00b0C Hedefi Fiilen A\u015f\u0131ld\u0131 m\u0131? Bilim Ne Diyor? \u00a0Bir bu\u00e7uk derece hedefine y\u00f6nelik mevcut yolun t\u00fckenip t\u00fckenmedi\u011fi konusu, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"no-sidebar","site-content-layout":"page-builder","ast-site-content-layout":"full-width-container","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"disabled","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"enabled","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1573","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/is\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1573","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/is\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/is\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/is\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/is\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1573"}],"version-history":[{"count":31,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/is\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1573\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1730,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/is\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1573\/revisions\/1730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/is\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1573"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}