{"id":1731,"date":"2026-03-06T18:40:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:40:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/?page_id=1731"},"modified":"2026-03-06T18:43:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:43:51","slug":"iklim-gocu-2050de-sinirlar-nasil-degisecek","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/km\/iklim-gocu-2050de-sinirlar-nasil-degisecek\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00a0\u1780\u17b6\u179a\u1792\u17d2\u179c\u17be\u1785\u17c6\u178e\u17b6\u1780\u179f\u17d2\u179a\u17bb\u1780\u17a2\u17b6\u1780\u17b6\u179f\u1792\u17b6\u178f\u17bb\u17d6 \u178f\u17be\u1796\u17d2\u179a\u17c6\u178a\u17c2\u1793\u1793\u17b9\u1784\u1795\u17d2\u179b\u17b6\u179f\u17cb\u1794\u17d2\u178f\u17bc\u179a\u1799\u17c9\u17b6\u1784\u178a\u17bc\u1785\u1798\u17d2\u178f\u17c1\u1785\u1793\u17c5\u1786\u17d2\u1793\u17b6\u17c6 \u17e2\u17e0\u17e5\u17e0?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u1780\u17b6\u179a\u1792\u17d2\u179c\u17be\u1785\u17c6\u178e\u17b6\u1780\u179f\u17d2\u179a\u17bb\u1780\u17a2\u17b6\u1780\u17b6\u179f\u1792\u17b6\u178f\u17bb\u17d6 \u178f\u17be\u1796\u17d2\u179a\u17c6\u178a\u17c2\u1793\u1793\u17b9\u1784\u1795\u17d2\u179b\u17b6\u179f\u17cb\u1794\u17d2\u178f\u17bc\u179a\u1799\u17c9\u17b6\u1784\u178a\u17bc\u1785\u1798\u17d2\u178f\u17c1\u1785\u1793\u17c5\u1786\u17d2\u1793\u17b6\u17c6 \u17e2\u17e0\u17e5\u17e0?<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00a0<\/span>2023\u2019te yay\u0131nlanan IPCC raporu ve COP21 bulgular\u0131; 2018\u2019de belirlenen 1,5 derece e\u015fi\u011finin mevcut emisyon e\u011filimleri devam ederse 2030\u2019lar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bu e\u015fi\u011fin ge\u00e7ilmesinin y\u00fcksek bir ihtimal oldu\u011funu ortaya koymu\u015ftur. E\u011fer mevcut durumun daha k\u00f6t\u00fcye gitmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmezse ba\u015fta kutuplardaki buzullar\u0131n eriyece\u011fi ve su seviyesinin y\u00fckselerek bir\u00e7ok kenti su alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakmas\u0131 gibi tehlikeler \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu sebeple de milyonlarca insan evsiz kalmas\u0131 tehlikesi ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. Bu durumun hukuk d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 iklim m\u00fcltecisi ve iklim pasaportu kavramlar\u0131n\u0131n tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz sonucu olarak iklim s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n ne y\u00f6nde de\u011fi\u015fece\u011finin g\u00fcndeme gelmesi ile g\u00f6rmekteyiz. \u00d6zellikle \u201chotspot\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan Akdeniz havzas\u0131 da ekonomik ve siyasi \u00f6nemi de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehlike arz eden b\u00f6lgeler aras\u0131nda.\u00a0
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\u00a0<\/span>D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re, 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar iklim kaynakl\u0131 yer de\u011fi\u015ftirme K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019de 143 milyona kadar insan\u0131 etkileyebilir ve Akdeniz, kuzeye do\u011fru y\u00f6nelen g\u00f6\u00e7 hareketleri i\u00e7in stratejik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f koridoru i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan su k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda varolan i\u00e7 g\u00f6\u00e7e sebebiyet vermektedir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u2019nin Alt\u0131nc\u0131 De\u011ferlendirme Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re Akdeniz havzas\u0131 , Orta emisyon senaryolar\u0131nda dahi yaz kurakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddetlenmesi, toprak neminin azalmas\u0131 ve su kaynaklar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 risklerini ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) b\u00f6lgesinde ise ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen su miktar\u0131n\u0131n zaten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle birlikte bunun daha da azalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t

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\u00a0<\/span>World Bank taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan Groundswell raporu, bu ekolojik projeksiyonlar\u0131n demografik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 modellemektedir. Rapora g\u00f6re, 2050\u2019ye kadar MENA b\u00f6lgesinde milyonlarca insan iklim etkileri nedeniyle \u00fclke i\u00e7inde yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmek zorunda kalabilir. G\u00f6\u00e7 \u00e7o\u011funlukla k\u0131rsal alanlardan kent merkezlerine y\u00f6nelmektedir. Bu durumda da \u201diklim m\u00fcltecileri\u201c olgusu g\u00fcndeme gelmektedir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Mevcut uluslararas\u0131 hukuk \u00e7er\u00e7evesi bu yeni hareketlilik bi\u00e7imlerine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 koruma sunmaktad\u0131r. 1951 Refugee Convention, iklim kaynakl\u0131 yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tan\u0131mamakta; bu da \u201ciklim m\u00fcltecileri\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan ki\u015fileri normatif bir bo\u015flukta b\u0131rakmaktad\u0131r. Her ne kadar Teitiota v. New Zealand gibi kararlar, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00e7evresel bozulman\u0131n belirli ko\u015fullarda geri g\u00f6ndermeme (non-refoulement) y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini tetikleyebilece\u011fini kabul etmi\u015f olsa da, iklim nedeniyle yerinden edilenler i\u00e7in ayr\u0131 bir hukuki stat\u00fc tesis edilmemi\u015ftir. M\u00fclteci tan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesi ya da ayr\u0131 bir \u201ciklim m\u00fcltecisi\u201d kategorisi olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00f6neriler bu bo\u015flu\u011fu doldurmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lasa da, ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 k\u00fcresel bir d\u00fczenleme hen\u00fcz ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu nedenle\u00a0<\/span>mevcut insan haklar\u0131 rejimleri g\u00fcncel ve gelecekte de daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen iklim m\u00fcltecileri haklar\u0131n\u0131 koruyamamaktad\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu ba\u011flamda daha yenilik\u00e7i ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir yakla\u015f\u0131m ise \u201ciklim pasaportu\u201d fikridir. Bu kavram, iklim etkileri nedeniyle ya\u015fanamaz hale gelen b\u00f6lgelerden gelen bireylere s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi hareketlilik hakk\u0131 ve potansiyel olarak i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na eri\u015fim sa\u011flayacak bir hukuki belgeyi ifade eder. Bu t\u00fcr d\u00fczenlemeler, s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 harita \u00fczerinde yeniden \u00e7izmekten ziyade, s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n iklim kaynakl\u0131 yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye nas\u0131l tepki verece\u011fini yeniden tan\u0131mlamay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r ki mevcut senaryolara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hukuki ve siyasi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler aras\u0131nda en iyi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde s\u0131n\u0131rlar harita \u00fczerinde fiziksel olarak de\u011fi\u015fmeyebilir; ancak siyasi ve hukuki anlamlar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir. Deniz seviyesinin y\u00fckselmesi baz\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131 \u00e7izgilerinin geri \u00e7ekilmesine ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rak\u0131ml\u0131 alanlar\u0131n daralmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir; ancak 2050 perspektifinde Akdeniz ve MENA b\u00f6lgesinde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli co\u011frafi s\u0131n\u0131r kaymalar\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. \u00d6yle ki, Uluslararas\u0131 hukukta, devletler, k\u0131y\u0131 \u00e7izgisi de\u011fi\u015fse dahi deniz yetki alanlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir e\u011filim g\u00f6stermektedirler. Bu nedenle iklim krizinin s\u0131n\u0131rlar \u00fczerindeki etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde harita \u00fczerinde de\u011fil, s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n nas\u0131l i\u015fletilece\u011fi konusunda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Artan iklim kaynakl\u0131 hareketlilik kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda devletler iki yoldan birini tercih edebilir: G\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc bir g\u00fcvenlik tehdidi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcp s\u0131n\u0131r kontrollerini sertle\u015ftirmek ya da yeni koruma stat\u00fcleri ve b\u00f6lgesel i\u015f birli\u011fi mekanizmalar\u0131 geli\u015ftirerek s\u0131n\u0131r rejimlerini uyarlamak. Mevcut e\u011filimler, k\u0131sa vadede s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n daha kat\u0131 uygulanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrmektedir. Ve fakat zaman\u0131n getirece\u011fi durumlara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda devletlerin geleneksel yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 terk edip iklim pasaportu gibi yenilik\u00e7i ve zaman\u0131n problem ve ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na cevap veren yeni hukuki yakla\u015f\u0131mlar benimsemelilerdir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130klim G\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc: 2050\u2019de S\u0131n\u0131rlar Nas\u0131l De\u011fi\u015fecek? \u00a02023\u2019te yay\u0131nlanan IPCC raporu ve COP21 bulgular\u0131; 2018\u2019de belirlenen 1,5 derece e\u015fi\u011finin mevcut emisyon […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"no-sidebar","site-content-layout":"page-builder","ast-site-content-layout":"full-width-container","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"disabled","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1731","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/km\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/km\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/km\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/km\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/km\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1731"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/km\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1731\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1736,"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/km\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1731\/revisions\/1736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.copantalya.com\/km\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}